I have no plans to create the simulator (but before I drop the idea all together) I thought I'd use a little Psuedo science to make my own earth quake prediction for the July 22 2009 Eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows, When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling on a plate that has not had series of recent earth quakes, the extra pull is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. I used the theory to predict the biggest magnitude of earthquake activity, and it happens to be in Southern Japan. Japan sits on or near the epicenter of 4 tectonic plates
1. Japan Time Magnitude
2. 9 0
3. 10 1
4. 11 3
5. 12 3
6. 13 5
7. 14 3
8. 15 6
9. 16 4
10. 17 5
11. 18 5
12. 19 2
13. 20 2
14. 21 0
15. 22 0
16. 23 0
17. 24 0
Japans tectonic plates
I predict a 6+ Magnitude Quake on July 22 2009 at 3:00PM Local Japanese time. This will be follower by two level 5+ Earthquakes and a Tsunami between 5:00PM and 7:00PM. The tsunami will start out in the pacfic ocean (to the South East of Japan ... Along the fault line) and hit all the islands to the south west of Japan, Indonesia and even reach New Zealand. The major quakes will actually be along the fault lines in the Ocean.
Most of the quake activity will be south of Japan. Taiwan and Indonesia will probably be hit hard too.
Note: I have absolutely no credibility to do this. I'm just applying the theory that the gravitational pull of the Sun and Moon pulling together will do the following things.
1. Lift the tectonic plates
2. Cause the tide to rise more than usual
3. Cause an underground molten magma tide to dip and raise the plates following the water tide.
I placed all the time data from the Nasa eclipse site into an excel spread sheet four the four tectonic plates in the region. I assumed an hour delay for each event following the lunar eclipse, and then summed the values. I assumed that the events would last longer for the fluids, water and molten magma than for dry land. I then summed the values four all 4 plates where Japan sits.
The blue path above shows the lunar path that will achieve the full solar eclipse at around 11:30 AM to 12:30 PM. Red dots show where the solar eclipse will be full.
I think a real simulator to test the theory would be a great benefit. I think the TGEA properly applied with a physics engine could do it. Who knows what the real values are, but its a fun idea to play with.
The original guy who came up with the theory said it could take up to 48 hours to get the quake. But I say that makes no sense. If the eclipse really does have an impact it should be within a few hours
~from email~
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